UK-US Trade "Historic Vassalization."

Boris Johnson, with the verbal support of Donald Trump, has made a mega-trade agreement with the US a centerpiece of his advocacy for Brexit, with or without a European Union (EU) agreement. His argument is that any losses resulting from the separation from the (EU) would be more than offset by the benefits of a hypothetical agreement that provides the UK with favorable access to the world's wealthiest marketplace.

Trump claims that "We want a very big trade deal" with the UK. However, true to form, he offered no specifics, failed to acknowledge the difficulties of such a deal, and did not address the contradictions and incoherence of his "approach" to trade issues.

What has been consistent since he assumed office is Trump's antagonism to the European Union and his efforts to undermine its effectiveness on issues ranging from Russia, climate change, NATO, trade and Brexit. A skeptic would suggest to Johnson that Trump is merely holding out the possibility of a trade agreement to increase the odds of a non-agreement Brexit and thereby further undermine the unity of the EU.

Assuming Brexit occurs and the UK turns to the U.S. to collect on Trump's "promise" of a very big trade deal, the following is a likely scenario.

• Long Lead Time: Given the complexity, competing interests and political and bureaucratic morass involved for both parties, it will be impossible to conclude a "very big trade deal" during the remaining 18 months of Trump's term in office, especially as Trump turns his limited attention to the 2020 election and the U.K. is fully occupied digging itself out of the chaos of the unforced error that is Brexit. Also a factor is Trump's notoriously short attention span and inability to deal with details, which will leave the trade agreement at the mercy of interest groups, lobbyists, politicians and bureaucrats.
• Conflicting Narratives: Even a cursory look at a potential trade deal reveals important differences that were papered over by the simplistic and misleading narratives that preceded Brexit. While Johnson has been salivating at the prospect of preferential access the US market, even he admits there are many hurdles in the US, including protectionist pressures from many industries, over-regulation, and overlapping entities (not least the US Congress) that would need to sign off on any agreements.
• Unequal Power: While the US would like to gain further access to the UK market, its interest is limited by the much smaller size of the market; the restrictions sure to be placed on US access to the National Health Service and other industries; and the certainty that the UK will remain deeply involved with its largest trading partner, the EU.

The likely outcome of these factors will be that the UK will largely accede to US demands while the US is unlikely to make any significant compromises or concessions in return.  In fact, the US will undoubtedly insist on non-trade related backing from the UK on such issues as Iran, climate change, China and, not least, NATO and the EU.

The most likely outcome of this very big trade deal is, as Macron put it, the UK's  "historic vassalization" to the US, a prospect that haunted Winston Churchill and many others.

​https://www.ft.com/content/2de04bdc-c726-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f